Wednesday, October 21, 2009

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/21/09)

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Well, this felt like a slow day on the polling front in Virginia and New Jersey. After a bevy of polls a day ago, there was but one poll released today. [I'm still trying to figure out how I processed all those polls a year ago in the presidential race. Five polls was nothing; especially this late in the race.] And Public Policy Polling's peek into the state of the race in Virginia wasn't like any of the polls a day ago. It seemed to settle in between the optimistic Survey USA poll (Well, optimistic if you're Bob McDonnell.) and the, in FHQ's estimation, more accurate Clarus Research Group survey. At 52-40, favoring McDonnell, though, it looked just as bad to the Deeds campaign. At this point, anything over double digits is a big hit to the Democratic state senator. And when the likely electorate is only 33% Democratic and 16% African American, it just isn't going to turn out well for the Democrat. It is no wonder, then, that when Obama visits, he's hitting the Hampton Roads area instead of Northern Virginia; the black vote is the target.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Margin of Error
Public Policy Polling [pdf]
Oct. 17-19, 2009
+/- 3.8%
666 likely voters

In any event, McDonnell is ahead and lengthening his lead over Creigh Deeds on top of that. The lone card left for Deeds to play is the Obama card because enthusiasm among commonwealth Democrats is what is killing Deeds. As Tom Jensen said today, the electorate has gone from +6 Obama a year ago to +6 McCain today. That's a significant shift in a year and one that even an Obama visit to the Old Dominion can't reverse.

Currently, FHQ has the race at just under ten points, but it is only a matter of time before that tops that threshold.

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And one more thing, while we're on the subject of Virginia: The Virginia Voter Information Project has revamped its web site with the help of Pew, Google and the New Organizing Institute and added some nice features. Below is a Google Gadget to locate where it is that you can vote.

...if you're Virginian.

Hat tip to Paul Gronke at Election Updates for the link.

Recent Posts:
Got 2010 Redistricting on the Brain?

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/20/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/20/09)

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