In Virginia, there may be reason to write off the gubernatorial race and move on, but further north in New Jersey, the story is slightly different. The race in the Garden state is shaping up to be a good one over these final two weeks. Republican Chris Christie continues to fall in the polls while independent candidate, Chris Daggett, has snatched up disillusioned supporters of the former US attorney as more and more revelations come to light. All the while incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has been biding his time, not doing much of anything in surveys the whole year. The governor has been stuck in the same 37-38% range he has been in all of 2009, yet, the Democrat is within reach of victory; something that seemed worlds away over the summer. Is it a done deal? No, but things have tightened up substantially in this race.
|2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling|
|Poll||Date||Margin of Error||Sample||Corzine||Christie||Daggett||Undecided|
|Rasmussen||Oct. 19, 2009||+/- 4%||750 likely voters||39||41||11||8|
|Monmouth/Gannett [pdf]||Oct. 15-18, 2009||+/- 3.1%||1005 likely voters||39||39||14||7|
Simply averaging the polls that have been released in the last 24 hours shows Christie with the slightest of edges (40-39), but in FHQ's estimation, the spread is a bit wider but shrinking daily. The narrative in this race -- well across this race and the Virginia race -- from will the Republican(s) win to "is this going to be a split" with one Democrat winning and one Republican winning. And what does that mean for 2010?
What does it mean for 2010? Nothing. It means that two bad candidates, who have run bad campaigns will have potentially lost. The lesson? Don't run a bad campaign. Oh, and try not to be a bad candidate. [Jack brought up a good point in the comments. The two candidates I was apparently (and admittedly) ambiguously referencing above were Chris Christie and Creigh Deeds. Of course, that naturally opens up the discussion as to whether Deeds and/or Christie are bad candidates.]
In New Jersey, though, things continue to be knotted among the two major party candidates with independent Chris Daggett rising coming down the stretch.
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New (Well, Old) Rasmussen 2012 GOP Primary Poll: Huckabee's Tops
The Week Ahead