Tuesday, November 3, 2009

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

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Prediction: Christie wins.

After looking back over the states FHQ incorrectly predicted a year ago in the presidential election (Indiana and North Carolina), we have come to the conclusion that close races are where our graduated weighted average can get into trouble. Yes, those are races that happen to be just like New Jersey. In our defense, Indiana was the only surprise. North Carolina was at least moving in Obama's direction. And though, New Jersey has moved in Corzine's direction in October, there is too much running against the incumbent Democrat. For starters, Corzine will likely have to poll over or around 45% to win unless Chris Daggett wins more than the 10% we have the independent projected to win. If Daggett doesn't get a larger share, Corzine will have to clear a barrier that he has yet to clear in any poll conducted in the race this year. He never got better than 44%. On top of that, Christie won no matter how we calculated our average, or more accurately what polls FHQ decided to include.

If all the 2009 polls were used, Christie won by the 3.4% you see above.

If only the polls since the June primary were included, Christie won by 2.2%.

If a simple average of all the final day polls is used, Christie won by one-third of a percentage point.

That may indicate that the momentum is behind Corzine in the aggregate. It could, but it could also mean that Corzine is still coming up short. Ordinarily, FHQ might be inclined to say that the tie goes to the one who has won statewide before because they would have some organizational advantage in a close race. In this case, though, Corzine's inability to crack 45% in any poll is the biggest piece of evidence against him.

And for FHQ, that is why we're giving the slight nod to Republican Chris Christie in this race.

Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

Final Virginia Update coming between 2 & 3 this afternoon.

Election Day 2009: What's on Tap? -- A Viewing Guide

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