FHQ is of the opinion that it did a better job putting the wraps on this race in our Sunday night update. Nothing in the two polls released on Monday in the Virginia gubernatorial race did anything to disrupt the conventional wisdom that Virginia will continue its streak of electing governors from the party not represented in the White House. If anything, both the PPP and Survey USA survey's provided additional proof that today's vote would be an overwhelming victory for Republican Bob McDonnell. More than anything, though, with the final polls in, we can assess the situation and, in this race at least, go out on a limb and make a prediction. That the state of Virginia in the graphic above is now completely red should be indicative enough of the fact that the evidence is pointing toward a McDonnell victory tonight. But now it is official.
|2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling|
|Poll||Date||Margin of Error||Sample||Deeds||McDonnell||Undecided|
|Public Policy Polling [pdf]||Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009||+/- 2.6%||1457 likely voters||42||56||2|
|Survey USA||Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2009||+/- 4.1%||502 likely voters||40||58||2|
Early on, the exit polls are showing the turnout is lower than expected in some Republican areas. The Democrats are touting those numbers, but it will take an awful lot of that to get Deeds anywhere close to winning this race. And lest everyone --Democrats specifically -- forget, the early 2004 presidential exit polls indicated that the United States would have a new president, President Kerry. Alas, it didn't quite turn out that way, if memory serves. As Markos Moulitsas just tweeted, "WTF, there are exit polls today? Big question -- which side will get punk'd by them?" Indeed. It would not be wise of Deeds supporters to put too much stock into them; not these early ones at least.
Prediction: McDonnell wins.
Final Virginia Update coming between 2 & 3 this afternoon.
Election Day 2009: What's on Tap? -- A Viewing Guide
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/2/09)