Monday, November 30, 2009

Washington Post Poll: 2012 GOP Primary Race

From The Washington Post:

Q: If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

[Click to Enlarge]

Yes, Sarah Palin is leading here, but the real news -- to FHQ anyway -- is that half of the survey respondents in this case either chose no one/other, wouldn't vote or had no opinion one way or the other about the 2012 Republican nomination. That is an awfully high number compared to other similar polls conducted during 2009. Granted, the question was slightly different than some of the other surveys we have seen on this subject as well. In other instances, names were provided, but respondents in the Washington Post were asked not to recognize names but to recall them. In that regard, it isn't terribly surprising that Palin -- someone with the most name recognition currently -- led the list. That neither Huckabee nor Romney fared any better than they did -- 10% and 9% respectively -- was also surprising. [And no, FHQ does not attribute Huckabee's pardon trouble for any of this since the story broke after the poll.]

And no one candidate cleared the 20% barrier either.

Poll: Washington Post
Margin of Error: +/- 4%, +/-5%
Sample: 485 Republicans and 319 Republican-leaning independents (nationwide)
Conducted: November 19-23, 2009

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Keith said...

Beyond the question difference, there was also something odd about this sample: Do Republicans and GOP leaners actually make up 61.5% of all adults?

Josh Putnam said...

That's a great point, Keith. I didn't do a good enough job playing up the oddity of how they reported those results. The polls and which parts of the sample were being asked particular questions was NOT made clear at all in the survey notes.

You'll notice also that while FHQ brought this poll to our readers' attention, we have not included it in the 2012 primary polling graphic displayed in the left sidebar.

Too quirky for our liking -- which is strange coming from the Post.

Anonymous said...


I don't see why you wouldn't include it. What's quirky about it besides the results being so much lower for Huckabee and Romney than in other polls?

The question doesn't sound strange at all to me. I suppose the methodology of leaving the question about who you would vote for open is quirky.

Anonymous said...

The biggest news from the poll is what Keith found: that 61.5% of all adults are either Republicans or Republican-leaning indies. More proof that this country is a center-right country.

I would think that's even better news for Palin that she has a strong lead despite the fact that the poll included far too many indies in its 2012 poll question.