Wednesday, September 28, 2011

What Florida on January 31 Means for the Rest of the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

So, Florida is strongly considering returning its presidential primary to the January 31 date with which it started 2011?1

Well, what does that mean for the remaining states that have yet to decide on dates? Furthermore, what does that mean for the rest of the calendar? First things first: If we operate under the assumption that the earliest states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- want to schedule their respective primaries and caucuses in 2012, then what we are witnessing now is a time crunch that significantly reduces the options available to those states. Now, all we have to go on here is the precedent set in 2008. Due to the time constraints, New Hampshire was willing to hold its primary just five days after the Iowa caucuses instead of the seven days that are required by state law. That exception was made presumably because New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner did not want the beginning of the nomination process stretching over into 2007. If that is the case in 2011, then there are only so many options that are available to the earliest states.

Before FHQ gets any further I should make some points about why it is that Florida is right back to where it started from. As I mentioned last night, the uncertainty of the Missouri situation coupled with the looming state-level deadline to set a date has forced Florida's hand. The Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee has to act under the worst-case-scenario assumption that the Missouri primary will end up on February 7; whether it actually does or not. That pushes Florida up to January 31 at the latest and sets in motion the sequential domino effect.

Naturally, our focus shifts to the earliest four states, but Georgia actually holds all the cards now. The calendar now hinges on the answer to the "Where will Georgia end up on the calendar?" question. There are three answers and at least two calendar scenarios associated with them:

1. Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp could opt to comply with the national parties' rules and set a date on or after March 6. Given his comments on joining Florida if the Sunshine state jumps the March 6 barrier and that he doesn't mind waiting until after Iowa and New Hampshire have set their dates to do likewise with Georgia's primary, the option seems unlikely, but still possible.

2. Secretary Kemp could also choose to set the Georgia primary on the same date as Florida.

3. Finally, Georgia could jump Florida.

The first two options yield the same calendar scenarios. Whether Georgia goes on the same date as or after Florida, the primary in the Sunshine state would still be on January 31. If, however, Georgia leapfrogs Florida, then the top of the calendar is reshuffled even further.

Option 1 (Georgia goes at the same time as Florida or later):
Tuesday, January 10: Iowa2 
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Tuesday, January 24: Louisiana caucuses (not confirmed but rumored)
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida, Georgia
Option 2 (Georgia before Florida):
a. Saturday Georgia primary
Monday, January 2: Iowa
Tuesday, January 10: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 14: Nevada
Saturday, January 21: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 24: Louisiana caucuses (not confirmed but rumored)
Saturday, January 28: Georgia
Tuesday, January 31: Florida
b. Tuesday Georgia primary
Monday, January 2: Iowa
Tuesday, January 10: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 14: Nevada
Saturday, January 21: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 24: Georgia, Louisiana caucuses (not confirmed but rumored)
Tuesday, January 31: Florida
The kicker here is that there will at some point be a showdown between New Hampshire and Nevada. New Hampshire law, as mentioned above, requires a seven day buffer on either side of its primary. An exception was made in 2007, and another one may have to be made in 2011. Why? Well, the Nevada Republican Party over the summer tethered their caucuses to New Hampshire, requiring that the caucuses be set on the Saturday after New Hampshire. New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has already said that that would not work for the Granite state. That reformulates slightly the above scenario analyses.

Option 3 (Georgia before Florida, New Hampshire at least 7 days before Nevada):
a. Saturday Georgia primary, New Hampshire at least 7 days before Nevada
Sunday, January 1: Iowa
Tuesday, January 3: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 14: Nevada
Saturday, January 21: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 24: Louisiana caucuses (not confirmed but rumored)
Saturday, January 28: Georgia
Tuesday, January 31: Florida
b. Tuesday Georgia primary, New Hampshire at least 7 days before Nevada
Sunday, January 1: Iowa
Tuesday, January 3: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 14: Nevada
Saturday, January 21: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 24: Georgia, Louisiana caucuses (not confirmed but rumored)
Tuesday, January 31: Florida
Now, I know folks are going to run with this January 1 Iowa caucus stuff. FHQ DOES NOT THINK IT WILL END UP THIS WAY. [Perhaps I got my point across.] Iowa on January 1 is shorthand for this may start in December. I'll spare you the caps this time, but I don't think that is likely either. If the only that triggers December contests is New Hampshire's desire to have a seven versus four day buffer between it and the Nevada caucuses, then New Hampshire will relent as it did in 2007 and accept the four day cushion.

Keep in mind that the year before barrier is a powerful one. If that is broken, it signals more than anything else can that the system is broken in some fundamental way. [Yes, those arguments are out there anyway, but jumping into the year before the presidential election would be exponentially worse.]  And that is not the signal that New Hampshire wants to send. That threatens the privileged position not only the Granite state enjoys, but Iowa and now South Carolina and Nevada. Those states will do whatever they can to avoid the December scenario.

If you are keeping score at home then, watch Georgia now that Florida has seemingly decided and that will be where the answers to the 2012 primary calendar puzzle lie.

--
1 Technically, state law had Florida scheduled for the final Tuesday in January since the law was changed in 2007. But that changed when the Florida legislature again altered the law in the legislation that created the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee.

2 The BCS championship game is on Monday, January 9 and Iowa would not fall on its customary Monday slot in that event.



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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

What do you think the candidates think about this shuffling? Any benefits to anyone in particular?

Josh Putnam said...

The candidates and their campaigns have been operating under the assumption for quite some time now that this process would start in January. Florida's decision has very little impact on that other than confirming that there will be an early January starting point.

The first four states will still be first and Florida will follow them, so the Romney wins NH & NV/Perry wins IA & SC with FL as the tiebreaker is still the most probable scenario. If one candidate can win three of those and FL, that candidate will likely have the inside track to the nomination.