Wednesday, October 28, 2009

CNN 2012 GOP Primary Poll: Huckabee Pulls in Almost a Third of Support

New Addition: FHQ has also now made it easier for you to track the evolution of the 2012 Republican primary trendlines you see below. Just click here or on the link below the latest 2012 update on the left sidebar to see the posts dealing with each of the eleven surveys released thus far.

[Click to Enlarge]

Poll: CNN/Opinion Research
Conducted : Oct. 16-18, 2009
Sample: 1038 adults (nationally), 462 Republicans
Margin of Error: +/- 3% (full sample), +/- 4.5% (Republican sample)

Huckabee: 32%
Palin: 25%
Romney: 21%
Pawlenty: 5%
Someone else: 10%

Notes:
1) Mike Huckabee is the first candidate to top 30% in any of these polls thus far. On top of that, the former Arkansas governor is close to pulling in a third of the (Republican) survey respondents' support and is the most favorable among all respondents.

2) Sarah Palin is the next most favorable, but is also the most unfavorable with over half of all the respondents leaning toward the latter. It would have been nice to have seen the favorables split by party. Still, Palin does the best in this primary poll (25%) as she has done in any such poll since stepping down from the Alaska governorship in late July.

3) Finally, Mitt Romney falls back for the second consecutive poll, but remains the least favorable/unfavorable candidate outside of Tim Pawlenty (a function of nearly half the respondents not knowing who the Minnesota governor is).

And FHQ was going to write Palin off as being a part of that top tier of candidates.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/27/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/27/09)

Why the Democratic Change Commission's March 1 Mandate Will Be a Tough Sell Without a Bipartisan Primary Reform Plan

9 comments:

MysteryPolitico said...

Somewhat OT (though still on the topic of the 2012 GOP presidential nomination) have you seen this bit of news:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/65167-former-nm-gov-johnson-to-set-up-527-raising-specter-of-wh-bid

about former NM Gov. Gary Johnson laying the groundwork for a potential 2012 presidential bid? Johnson may be angling to become the Ron Paul of 2008. Anyway, it's gotten basically zero play in the MSM so far. I guess Johnson is still too obscure.

MysteryPolitico said...

Obviously meant to type "the Ron Paul of 2012", not 2008.

Robert said...

Look for a big bounce in Sarah Palin's poll numbers at the end of November as her book comes out on November 17. I will be in line to purchase it.

Josh Putnam said...

[Nothing's off topic.]

MP,
No, Johnson's move is getting very little notice in the MSM. Christian Heinze at GOP12 did mention it either last night or this morning. [Today's been a blur.]

Here's the GOP12 link. [Ah, it was last night.]

&

Here's the one from The Hill.

Ron Paul of '12? Ron Paul may have something to say about that.

Rob,
I suspect you're right. But we'll have to see. Nationally, the CNN poll echoed Steve Schmidt (geez, I need to get that last Rick Davis post up!) and his "catastrophic" line. But that's the second round. She's looking pretty good in the first round -- the primaries.

What I think I'm more excited about is to see how her trial heat numbers against Obama look like after that point. PPP's next release should be around that time (either the weekend before or the weekend after).

Robert said...

Ron Paul needs to either go back to the Libertarians or show that he can pull in some Republicans. If he can't consistently pull in more than 10% of the vote in the primaries, he ceases to become a choice. Another run with similar numbers could turn him into the Harold Stassen of 2012.

Robert said...

Looks like the DNC wants to help out Palin's poll numbers. Look for a bounce if they go after her "lies"

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/10/29/dnc-asks-supporters-to-take-on-palins-lies/

Josh Putnam said...

Here's that link from Rob.

The funny thing is why now? She's been after bits and pieces of the health care issue on Facebook for a while now.

It won't help her nationally necessarily, but it may fire up some Republicans to maybe jump off the undecided fence in a hypothetical against Obama.

Robert said...

Democrats can't leave her alone.

Josh Putnam said...

No, they can't. They need someone to fill the Bush void apparently.