Bill Pascoe says, in Iowa, Rick Santorum or Unknown Republican X have the most to gain. [This post is great if only for the explanation of the differences in caucus rules between the parties in Iowa.]
Nate Silver is of the opinion that the latter may also find some benefit (...in the nomination race).
Who is Unknown Republican X? FHQ's money is on John Thune. But is he more 2016 material than 2012?
Hat tip to Paul Gurian for the link.
The Links (12/1/09)
Washington Post Poll: 2012 GOP Primary Race
Rasmussen 2012 Trial Heats (Nov. '09): Another Tie for Romney Against Obama