Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Election Night 2009: Live Blog (ME-ref, NJ-gov, NY-23, VA-gov)

12:26pm: FHQ will return in the morning for some parting shots on Election '09 and to tie up the loose ends in Maine and in CA-10. Everyone has something to spin tonight, but the GOP got the two biggest gets in New Jersey and Virginia.

12:22pm: One last update: Maine's Yes on 1 seems likely to win and repeal the gay marriage law in the Pine Tree state. With about 80% of the precincts in, the lead is nearly 5% for Yes.

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12:16pm: Hoffman has conceded NY-23.

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12:03pm: Owens has jumped back over 49% with almost 90% of the precincts reporting. If the Democrats win in California's 10th district special election the party will have swept all the congressional special elections in 2009. It hasn't been a good night for the Democratic Party, but that is one thing the DCCC can hang its hat on. Now, in 2010, their task will be more difficult.

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12:00am: Fox is calling NY-23 for Owens.

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11:55pm: In other words, of those 5800 absentee ballots returned, Hoffman is going to have to win by about 4:1 to make up the difference between himself and Owens. And yeah, a lot of those ballots were returned when Scozzafava was still in the race. That's an uphill climb for Hoffman.

11:52pm: From the Watertown Daily Times (in NY-23):
"Democrat Bill Owens is leading in the 23rd Congressional District race.

The Plattsburgh attorney has 58,851 votes compared to Conservative Doug Hoffman, a Lake Placid CPA, with 55,618 votes.

Dede Scozzafava, a Republican who dropped out of the race Saturday, has 6,749 votes.

There were more than 10,000 absentee votes sent out before the election and some 5,800 were returned and must be counted. More absentee ballots, if sent before the deadline, could still be received.

Owens now leads in Jefferson, St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton and Essex counties.

Hoffman leads in Lewis, Oswego, Oneida, Fulton, Hamilton and Madison counties.

Owens is maintaining a 48 percent to 46 percent lead.

Four precincts in St. Lawrence County are having mechanical problems and total results for the county won't be available tonight."

11:42pm: A last glance at New Jersey and Virginia (a lot of red tonight):

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11:30pm: Also, The Albany Project is calling NY-23 for Owens. That's an unofficial call.

11:27pm: After a quick nourishment break, FHQ is back. Let's check in on NY-23 and in Maine. Owens continues to hold on with just under 80% reporting and Yes on 1 has stretched a thin lead into a "thin but not quite as thin" edge.

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11:04pm: Just about half of the precincts are reporting in Maine and Yes on 1 (to repeal the gay marriage law passed by the state legislature) is now ahead.

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10:51pm: Maine is down to 37 votes margin. From Political Wire via Twitter: "Maine gay-marriage initiative currently at a 37-vote difference. Yes, 37. (via @steve_shepard)."

10:45pm: Not vying for the honor of closest? That would be Virginia's gubernatorial race:

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10:43pm: Well, I suppose NY-23 would have to duke it out with the Maine gay marriage ballot measure for that distinction. Things are slightly tighter in the Pine Tree state than in the North Country.

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10:40pm: Over half precincts are in in Upstate New York. Owens has slipped under 50% and the Democrat's lead is down to under 3 points. Could this one be the close one we've been waiting for?

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10:28pm: Corzine could not pull the Brendan Byrne circa 1977 comeback. There has not been a Democratic come-from-behind in a New Jersey gubernatorial race since then. That's mostly because the Democrats are ahead in the polls. The incumbent Democrat was simple too unpopular statewide and Chris Daggett didn't end up pulling enough actual votes away from Christie to make that a non-factor. That's the way it had been in the October polls in the race. Independents broke for Christie in the end and not Daggett.

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10:22pm: Back to NY-23 (Don't worry we'll return for a few notes on Christie's win.): 31% of precincts are in and Owens is still over 50%. Others have said that the story in Virginia and New Jersey tonight was the independents (both broke for the Republicans), but is a moderate, albeit right-leaning, district going for the moderate Democrat instead of the more ideologically extreme Conservative, Hoffman?

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10:15pm: Had to point that out didn't you, FHQ?

10:13pm: We interrupt NY-23 to announce that the AP has called New Jersey for Christie. Wow! That's a much quicker call than we had anticipated. However, FHQ was 2 for 2 on the gubernatorial calls.

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10:10pm: Granted, the last round of polling in NY-23 had Hoffman pulling ahead. The Conservative Party nominee was the momentum candidate heading into today.

10:08pm: Of course, Erick Erickson (RedState) had this to say (also via Twitter): "Hoffman race too close to call for now, but they are still cautiously optimistic."

10:06pm: Marc Ambinder on NY-23 (via Twitter): "Republicans suddenly VERY nervous about NY 23...."

10:04pm: The results are slow to come in up in Maine. With 22% of the precincts reporting, the turnout rate is 81% and No on 1 holds a now very slim lead (50.62%-49.38%).

9:53pm: Nearly two-thirds of the votes are in in New Jersey. I think it is safe to say that Daggett is hurting Jon Corzine. Well, Daggett's having underperformed expectations are anyway. The independent is still at about half of the share FHQ projected him to have based on polling. As we've mentioned that may be a function of the fact that he was the lone alternative to Christie and Corzine in a lot of those polls. The support just wasn't there.

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9:49pm: In local election news, turnout was LIGHT in Winston Salem today. Joines (D) was running unopposed for mayor. I was voter #113 in my precinct.

...at just before 5pm. Yikes!

9:37pm: A quick peek at Virginia: McDonnell is under 60% and Deeds broke the 40% barrier. A big turnaround from a year ago in Virginia.

...for both parties.

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9:30pm: Owens with the early lead in NY-23. Well, that's a 37-25 lead over Hoffman. Scozzafava has 3. Let's project that one based on less than 1% reporting.

...or not.

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9:22pm: Update from Maine. No on 1 is ahead as is the medical marijuana. Turnout was 45% (unofficially) in the Pine Tree state today. That's not bad for a ballot full of referenda. Thanks to Jack for the link to the results.

9:08pm: The story so far in New Jersey is that Daggett is underperforming (Ah, the third party election day fade.) while the two major party candidates are overperforming expectations slightly. With just over a quarter of the state reporting, Christie is over 50%. The Republican hadn't seen that level of support in the polls since the summer. What was his last poll with over 50%? An early August Rasmussen poll. It's been a while. Corzine may yet break that 45% barrier we discussed earlier, but for the time being he's in the low 40s.

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9:05pm: Only 501 precincts yet to come in in Virginia. Nope, not getting any closer. Will Deeds break 40%? That is the question. FHQ had him pegged at 41.0%. There's little doubt McDonnell will exceed FHQ's projection.


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8:59pm: I love the map New York Times has up on their front page. There's nothing like a map being filled in a election results come in:

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8:56pm: Polls are about to close in NY-23. Let the uncertainty begin dissipating.

...maybe.

8:46pm: FHQ is late to start, but it doesn't look like we missed much in Virginia:
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That one gets an, "Ouch" rating. I felt like FHQ's averages may have undervalued McDonnell's potential vote share, but Deeds' polling versus Deeds' vote share aren't that different. Yes, I see that it's official in Virginia. Did the above graphic leave any room for doubt?


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

Final Virginia Update coming between 2 & 3 this afternoon.

23 comments:

Jack said...

Anywhere where I can see actual NJ exit polls?

As for results, nj.com has them but can't sort by county. NJ Division of elections has it by county but won't tell me what percent of precincts are reporting in each county. And there are even problems with the links on that page. Very disappointing for a political junkie like myself.

Gay marriage results are here.

And I'm hoping I don't have trouble getting results for my county legislature and other local offices.

Josh Putnam said...

Thanks for the link Jack. I got off to a late start.

New Jersey is a mess. There's always a lag with NYT, but that's where I am for the time being. DoE in NJ is a mess. They need to get together with the guys from Virginia.

Jack said...

MSNBC seems to be a bit ahead of

I'm looking at some of the results from NJ. Corzine's running WAY behind Obama in the counties that have been nearly fully counted. Then again, Obama won NJ in a landslide. I haven't done the math, though, but it looks to me that he's running just too far behind Obama. For example, McCain won about 53% of the two party vote in Monmouth county; Christie is winning that county by a two-to-one margin.

Jack said...

And that's what happens when you start one thought and then work on another - you don't finish the first thought.

What I was trying to say there is that MSNBC is a bit ahead of NYT.

Jack said...

There must be some error on the NYT site. It has Corzine winning Sussex County in a landslide. Sussex is VERY Republican area. Kean beat Menendez there almost two to one in 2006.

As you can see, I'm starting comparing to the 2006 Senate race rather than the 2008 presidential race, as it was the last really close race in NJ, and I'm too lazy to do math.

Jack said...

Yep, I'm right. They had the results backwards for Sussex. Has been fixed.

Josh Putnam said...

All the news that fit to print.

Jack said...

Corzine actually did alright in some of the swing counties in NJ, like Bergen (79% reporting) and Gloucester (100% reporting), barely losing these two counties that are slightly more Republican than the NJ average.

Josh Putnam said...

Yeah, but Daggett's share (or lack there of) is killing Corzine.

Nate said...

Why doesn't the New York Times have a map of county-level results for the race in CD-23?

Josh Putnam said...

I have no idea, Nate.

FHQ NEEDS MAPS!!!

Jack said...

Looking for close races? We have a few nail-biters in Nassau County in races with Dem incumbents that aren't supposed to be nail-biters but apparently I'm the only Democrat that came out to the polls toay.

Josh Putnam said...

Bad day for incumbents.

Jack said...

Bad day for Democratic incumbents, you mean. What Republican incumbent got voted out?

It's a bad day for Democrats. Deeds wasn't an incumbent. If either of the VA candidates was like an incumbent, it's McDonnell, who holds statewide office.

Josh Putnam said...

Well, I'm including incumbent parties of outgoing officials in that. Deeds represented the incumbent party in Virginia. Dems got crushed in all those statewide races in Virginia.

What incumbent Republican lost? Bloomberg lost to expectations. Republicans lost the Charlotte mayor race for the first time since Harvey Ganntt won in 1987. In the big ones, though, it was incumbent Dems that had a tough row to hoe.

Jack said...

Am I really supposed to get excited about Democrats winning a mayoral race in a big city that really leans strongly Democratic, in spite of the recent Republican mayors? No. I'm not going to get that excited when a Democrat finally wins in New York either. Because that's what's supposed to happen. Republicans aren't supposed to win in cities that are 75% Democratic.

I apologize for the grumpiness.

Josh Putnam said...

For Democrats there just weren't a lot of big ones out there. They could end up winning two special elections for congressional districts, but get swept in the gubernatorial races.

No, I wouldn't get too excited about mayoral wins. That's just a bit of local fare from the Old North State.

Jack said...

Well, for me the local races are going awfully. How incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi isn't running away with the county executive race mystifies me (awful turnout, I know, about 23% in a relatively well-to-do, educated, civically engaged suburban county).

And we really can't count CA-10, can we? It's D+11, and the Democratic candidate isn't William Jefferson.

Josh Putnam said...

Congressional district special elections have been the one thing that has gone right for the Democrats this year (and tonight). But now the focus shifts to 2010.

Jack said...

Hoffman's website, at the end of the concession he posted: "Thank you,signature."

Josh Putnam said...

Darn. I hate I missed that. It has been replaced by an actual signature now.

Robert said...

Congratulations on your accurate projections of the Governor's races. It looks like you are fine-tuning the process for 2012. I am anxiously awaiting your parting shots. I will then add my analysis in response.

Josh Putnam said...

I finally got to look at the numbers this afternoon after class. I'll have something up some time this evening.